Amu Research Paper Philippines

We choose the ASEAN10+3 currencies as the component currencies of the AMU. The ASEAN10+3 is composed of Brunei, Cambodia, Indonesia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and China.

We calculate the AMU according to the method used to calculate the ECU under the EMS prior to the introduction of the euro in 1999. In the same way that the ECU was defined as a basket of currencies of EU member countries, the AMU is defined as a basket currency of the ASEAN10+3 countries. The weight of each currency in the basket is based on both the countries' respective shares of the gross domestic product (GDP) measured at purchasing power parity (PPP) and trade volumes (the sum of exports and imports) in the total of sampled countries for the relevant country. We calculate the countries' shares of GDP measured at PPP and the average trade volumes for the most recent three years as the currency shares of the AMU (the current version is based on 2013-2015). The average for the most recent three years for which data are available is used to calculate the currency shares in order to reflect the most recent trade relationships and economic conditions of the 13 East Asian countries for calculation of the AMU.

We should quote the value of the AMU in terms of a weighted average of the U.S. dollar and the euro because both the United States and the EU countries are important trading partners for East Asia. The weighted average of the U.S. dollar and the euro (hereafter, US$-euro) is based on the East Asian countries' trade volumes with the United States and the euro area, and the share of invoice currency in Asian countries. The weights on the U.S. dollar and the euro are set at 65% and 35%, respectively 2.

Next, we choose a benchmark period in order to calculate the AMU Deviation Indicators. The benchmark period is defined as the following: total trade balance of member countries, total trade balance of the member countries (excluding Japan) with Japan, and total trade balance of member countries with the rest of world should be relatively close to zero.

Table 1, which shows the trade accounts of the 13 East Asian countries from 1990 to 2015, indicates that the figures were the closest to balance in 2001. Assuming a one-year time lag before changes in exchange rates affect trade volumes, we should choose 2000 and 2001 as the benchmark period. For the benchmark period, the exchange rate of the AMU in terms of the US$-euro is set at unity. We define the exchange rate of each East Asian currency in terms of the AMU during the benchmark period as the benchmark exchange rate.

In summary, the AMU weights are calculated based on both the arithmetic shares of trade volumes and GDP measured at PPP (average of latest three years). The benchmark exchange rate for each currency is defined in terms of the AMU during 2000-2001. Table 2 shows the AMU weights as well as trade volume, GDP measured at PPP, arithmetic shares, and the benchmark exchange rates.

We can use the AMU weights in Table 2 to calculate an exchange rate for the AMU in terms of the US$-euro as follows3 :

Figure 1 shows the daily movements in the nominal exchange rate of the AMU in terms of the US$-euro. For reference, we add the daily movements in both of the nominal exchange rates of the AMU in terms of the U.S. dollar and the euro.

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